Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Conference Champtionship Picks ATS

After a week off to relax and reflect, CK is ready to finish the season strong. Overall it has been a good year, but after a great start, I am lost my way a little recently. However, time to get it back this week!

Oklahoma State -3 vs. Oklahoma. The Cowboys are coming off their only loss in a dismal performance in Ames; however, I believe that was the typical let down game (unfortunately for the Pokes, it may have cost them big time). Okie State's offense is tough to stop and OU certainly doesn't have the best pass defense. Although OU has won 9 straight in this match-up, that only makes me like the Pokes more.....for one, no team ALWAYS beats the other, so the Cowboys are due. Second, they are at home, that is a huge advantage in a rivalry game. Finally, this game means more to Okie State - OU has had some mental lapses, and although they can still win the conference, I have to believe the Cowboys will be more fired up for this one. I expected the line to be around 5 or 6, but clearly the awful performance last week pushed it down as it created some doubt. I have to disagree with that line of thinking.....Cowboys get long-awaited revenge. 3 units.

West Virginia -1 @ South Florida. In these late season games, it always important to try to consider who has more to play for; and this one is important to both, but I think WVA has more on the line with a likely BCS berth at stake. Neither team is playing well lately, but even at home I don't think the Bulls can right the ship enough to get a W. Not to mention Daniels may not be 100%. 2.5 units.

Michigan State +9.5 vs Wisconsin. I know, I know, I have had zero success betting on Sparty this year, but I'm going back for more. I realize the Badgers are likely the better team and will certainly be motivated by revenge; however, this is the Big 10 championship and I think the veteran MSU group will be ready to play. Wisconsin has dominated bad teams, but has not looked as dominant against legit competition this year. I do think it is a long shot that Sparty pulls off the upset, but I just think 9.5 is too many points to lay in this type of game on a neutral field. Finally, just like OU can't ALWAYS beat OSU, can I really ALWAYS be wrong on MSU, I think not! 2 units.

Va Tech -7 vs. Clemson. The Hokies have continued to improve all year, but Clemson, in typically style has regressed. The coaching staff at VaTech is something else, and they will be well prepared to avenge their only loss. Clearly people have figured out how to stop Clemson, so I expect Foster and the Hokies D to be all over them. Two teams going in opposite directions, I'll lay the TD as I expect VaTech to get ahead and then run away late. 2 units.

No. Illinois -3.5 vs Ohio. Staying local for the last pick.....as much as a want to pick the LSU game; I think this is a better option. The Huskies are rolling, as they usually do through the MAC and I think they'll cruise to the title. They are very well coached and have played a tougher schedule than Ohio which I think will help prepare them for this game. I don't think Ohio can put enough offense on the board to keep up. 2 units.

There we have it the final pre-bowl picks of 2011. You may also want to look at the Under in the WVA / S.FL game at 55. Good luck!

CK

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