Time to improve on my awful performance last week. Maybe I'm just a little gun-shy because of last week, but there are not too many games that catch my eye this week. So, here are the week 2 picks (again, don't ever be surprised if there is another "last minute" play):
Florida -36.5 @ home versus Troy. Always hard to lay more than 5 TDs, but Florida is so deep and talented that I expect even 2nd or 3rd stringers to be battling for more meaningful playing time and thus expect a severe route. 2 units.
Georgia -7 @ home versus S. Carolina. I expect Georgia to be hungry playing at home coming off a road loss at OK St. Georgia played well, but just couldn't sustain it for the whole game against the Cowboys. S. Carolina beat N.C. State on the road and probably gained some confidence for their young players, but I expect their lack of discipline to be their downfall here on the road. Georgia will punish the mistakes much more than N.C. State did. 2 units.
*N.D. -3 @ Michigan. I think Jimmy Clausen is ready to have a big time performance in a big game. He is eating MAC teams alive, but hasn't had real success in his first 2 years in a big game, but that will change here. He has matured, and maybe most importantly, he has some help around him. Not sure they'll be able to run the ball successfully which may keep the game close, but I don't think Michigan is quite there yet and relying on freshman QB is tough in big rivalry games. 3 units.
UNC -4 @ UConn. UNC is a solid and athletic team who should be able to dominate this game physically. UConn is rebuilding and despite a solid win in the opener (that many people that they would lose), that type of performance won't get it done today against a quality opponent. UNC superior athleticism will carry the day here and easily cover the 4 points even on the road (well, its never 'easy' it seems). 3.5 units.
*USC -7 @ Ohio State. While it is tough to pick against Ohio State getting a TD in their own building, I think the line at 7 is just enough to keep enough money on Ohio State. It is tempting, having all that energy behind them and trying to inflict a little revenge AND getting a TD, but at the end of the day USC (freshman QB or not) is just to strong. Forget the performances last week, Ohio State will look better, but it doesn't matter, they can't compete with USC who is just loaded with athletes again. I expect it will stay interesting from a gambling perspective, but don't think Ohio State will have a legitimate chance to win this game. 3 units.
Well, as you will see, I have just picked 5 favorites, something I certainly don't like to do, therefore, I want to talk about a few dogs who I think have a good chance to cover the number today. First, (as Walter pointed out) pointed out, I like Purdue +13 @ Oregon. I know Colorado is bad, but Toledo is decent and Purdue was able to handle them in week 1. Going to a fired up, but maybe unfocused, Oregon team may will be difficult, but I think Purdue has enough offense to hang around in this one. Also, I have a similar feeling with Houston +15 @ OK ST. OK ST certainly impressed in week 1 by beating Georgia, but what will get them excited about today's game?? Could certainly be a let down for them. I think they will win, but also think Houston +15 is a solid play.
* Just wanted to note that Joker also picked these games and post his picks before I did.
** Sorry for the late posting, have busy weekend and had computer issues last night.
Enjoy the games . . .
Friday, September 11, 2009
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