Week 5 picks ATS

Here we go with the week 5 picks. After my first week of picks I have gotten away from assigning units (or hot girls in Joker's case) games because I have a relatively small difference in confidence in the 5 games . . . but I was asked to assign units again, so will do. Also, sorry for the delay in posting these picks this week, but sometimes it takes time to be right.

LSU +3 @ Georgia. This game will likely be close and I agree that LSU may be slightly (or way) overrated, but they probably don't believe that. They believe they are still in the BCS hunt with a #4 ranking and have a lot more to play for than Georgia. Certainly the possibility that this is a look ahead game with Florida coming to LSU next week, but I think the road game at Georgia will be plenty of motivation. Also, on the field, LSU is struggling on offense, but Georgia's D has been making it easy for teams all year long and LSU will be no exception. Georgia may be talented on paper (and Green is talented in all aspects), but they seem to struggle putting it together. They stole a win at home (at night) last week against an average ASU squad (although I was pleased with that result), they will not be as lucky this week. 4 units. LSU dominated early and then tried to give it away, but got it done in a war.

Michigan +4 @ MSU. MSU is not good! I'm not sold on Michigan yet either, especially if Forcier is not 100%, but they will be better than MSU tomorrow. This is a rivalry game, more so for MSU, but Michigan is playing with a lot of confidence and should be able to make difficult for MSU to move the ball. MSU is struggling at the QB position and no longer has Ringer to bail them out. Wouldn't be surprised to see Michigan win this game, but will definitely gladly take the 4 points. 3.5 units. Don't get me started, Michigan looked terrible for 52 minutes but then tied it up and had some unfortunate plays (breaks) in OT. Disappointing loss (as it stopped a 5-0 week) but realistically U of M shouldn't have had those chances.

Penn St. -6.5 @ Illinois (got in early, but still pleased at -7). I know Walter is on Illinois because the Lions could have a let down after their tough at home loss last week, but Illinois is not good. I'm surprised at the ineptness of Illinois, especially on offense with a 4 year starter at QB (even if it is Juice) and Benn as a primary target, but they have not been able to do anything offensively this year and I don't expect a breakout week against Penn St. Penn St. is usually good for a poor showing and a loss you don't expect (see last week), but I think that performance lowered this spread way too much. Expect Penn St. to roll, even in Ill. Would be higher, but out of respect to Walter, 2.5 units. How many times can you say it, ILL is not good. ILL stuck around for 30 minutes, but PSU dominated the 2nd half and rolled as expected.

Oregon St. +5 @ ASU. I know both Joker and Walter are on this game (and have already posted picks), but this game is just too enticing not to include in my 5 picks. ASU is a very solid, average team, but lack any sort of exceptional qualities. The Beavers were probably slightly overrated to start the season, but they are a solid team and the Rogers' brothers are both very nice football players who can break big plays. Also, I think the Oregon St. D is pretty solid and even at home I do not expect ASU to put up a lot of points and expect a close game, thus I like being on the side getting 5 points. 3 units. Points not needed.

USC -4 @ Cal. USC wins big games, usually by large margins. As good as J. Best is for Cal, it will be a tough week for him this week against the USC D. Very tough to run consistently against USC because of they have tremendous athletes all over the field. If Cal fails to run the ball consistently they are in real trouble because I do not expect Riley to hurt USC (especially without their best receiver) - see last week. My only hesitation here is that the USC offense is not as explosive as usual because of the freshman QB, but even without one of their top RBs, they should be able to move the ball consistently enough. It may be kind of ugly and don't expect a route, but will almost always be pleased to get USC at -4, this is no exception. 3 units. Cal's offense was inept. Once USC scored 17 points it was over.

Also, while the 5 games above will be the only picks that help me to beat Joker and Walter in our weekly battle, there are a few more games that I thought I would provide some additional thoughts on. First, I agree with Walter that the Smarties from Evanston (otherwise known as Northwestern) will do well at Purdue and like the 7/8 points in that game. In addition, I like Joker's Bama team to drill UK and easily cover the 16 points - although you can't blame UK fans for being supportive of their team in the hopes of seeing Ms. Judd. Although the weather may be an issue as it may rain, I definitely like Wisconsin and Minnie to put up more than 53 points tomorrow - and who doesn't like cheering for points. Good week for the Chicago Kid, will always take 4 of 5, and on top of that, NWestern, Bama and the points (wow that was an "interesting" 4th Q in Minnie) all came through for me.

Also, check back tomorrow as I would not be surprised at all to have some 'last minute' involvement in a few games and will plan to post my thoughts. Good luck!