Week 7 College Football Picks Against the Spread

Wow, tough to believe we are in week 7 of college football, but I'm not complaining as it is tough to beat Saturdays with college football (especially when you add beer). Chicago Kid has been on a great run the last 4 weeks and I hope to keep it going this week and separate myself from the Joker a little bit. So here we go . . .

Arkansas +24.5 @ Florida. I know, I know, tough to be successful picking against the #1 team in the country week after week, but even though the Gators covering at LSU last week was my sole loss, I'm going to fire at them again this week with Arkansas (and the all important 24.5 points). On the non-football front, the last 2 weeks had to be tough on Florida mentally with all of the Tebow drama and then the big win at LSU so even though they are heading home, I expect more of a sigh of relief than further enthusiasm. Just like everyone else in the country, Florida knows they are better than the Razorbacks and so I struggle to believe they are going to put forth their best effort. On the field, Florida is extremely talented, especially on the defensive side of the ball, but if they have a defensive weakness it is against the pass. And we know that Arkansas will try to attack that part of the defense, and i expect them to be mildly successful. Florida's offense is not nearly as explosive as it has been in recent years; and they have not been hanging large numbers of points on teams as they have in the past. While I expect Florida to win this game comfortably, 24.5 is a lot of points in an SEC game and I think Arkansas will score enough to cover that number. 3.5 units. Win, and only needed a few of the 24.5 points.

Central Michigan -6.5 @ Western Michigan. This is a rivalry game and I often avoid those, but in this case I think Central is the far superior team. They have played well on the road, including a solid win at MSU. Although the intensity may keep Western in this game for a while, QB LeFevour and the Chippewas should run away with this one and cover the 6.5 points. 2.5 units. Win.

Texas Tech +10.5 @ Nebraska. This has been an interesting line to watch, it opened at -6.5 and is now up to 10.5 and even 11 in some places. Clearly the public thinks the Huskers will take care of business in this one, but as is often the case, I disagree. I enjoyed taking of advantage of Nebraska last week at Missouri, but here I expect a very close game and appreciate the 10.5 points. Nebraska's D is good, no question, and Tech has a little uncertainty at QB, but I think we have seen the Mike Leach's system works regardless of who is under center - not to mention both Red Raiders QBs have been good this year (7 TDs last week) so I don't think it really matters who starts. Yes, Nebraska is historically tough at home, but Texas Tech has played too quality teams (UT and Houston) on the road already this year and so I don't expect the trip to Lincoln to phase them. Tech's offense makes it difficult to get to the QB and that should negate a strength of the Nebraska D. So, although I think Nebraska may pull this one out, I expect Tech to make a game of it. Not to mention, we know Tech will continue to attack regardless of the score and so if needed, a back-door cover is not out of the question here either (and I'll take them any way I can get them). 3 units. Win, this one was fun to watch.

Minnesota +17.5 @ Penn St. Penn St is probably the better team here, but the issue is that we can't be sure because they haven't really played anyone yet except Iowa, who beat them. PSU typically man-handles lesser competition and then struggles with the better teams. Whether the Gophers are such a team is yet to be seen, but we at least know that Minnie is a solid Big 10 football team; they have a nice QB / receiver tandem in Weber and Decker and a decent running game. I certainly do not see this as a shoot-out type game and thus really like the 17.5 points that come with Minnie. Joe P. is extremely conservative once he gets the lead and so it is usually allows teams to hang around and pick up a cover. So, while I have not had too much success backing a team 2 weeks in a row, even though I am likely backing the lesser team here the 17.5 points is just too many to pass up. 2 units. Loss, I would like to have a few words with the rih-tard who was working the replay booth in Happy Valley.

Iowa +2.5 @ Wisconsin. Alright, yeah, yeah, I know, another road team pick. I do realize that it is an advantage to play at home, as I really expect it to help the Badgers here, but still do not think they can beat a very solid and well coached Iowa team. Although Iowa has had some low points this year (anyone remember the Northern Iowa game), but I expect we'll see their best here. They won at Penn St so we know they can win on the road (at night nonetheless) and they won a big game versus Michigan last week. They are still undefeated and will be focused on staying that way. Iowa is not necessarily pretty or thrilling but they do what they need to do to win games, run the ball and stop the run. While Stanzi has made some untimely mistakes, I expect him to be on his game in this big contest and deliver as needed - although he should not be counted on to win it alone. Wisconsin is a solid team, but continues to beat themselves one way or another. I expect this to be close throughout, and expect Iowa to win the game on the field, but I'll take the 2.5 points just in case. 3 units. Win.

There you have my 5 picks against spread for week 7 in college football, but check back as I am almost certain I will have additional thoughts on several other games. Good luck!