Thursday, November 26, 2009

Thanksgiving Day . . . Week 13 CFB picks

Let the long sports weekend begin! How can you not like this weekend, sports on almost non-stop, good food and good booze. So, let's get to the Chicago Kid's Turkey Day CFB picks against the spread . . . .

Tenn -3 @ Kentucky. This is my top rated pick for Joker's House money game. And my apologies it goes against your 5-star home dog pick, but Tenn will rout Kentucky. The Vols have certainly had some growing pains this year, but I think Kiffin, although he is a prick, can coach, and his dad can certainly coach defense. UK is also playing better, I admit, but will really struggle to move the ball with any consistency against this Vols D, even at home. At this point in the season, I don't think going on the road has that much of an effect on teams and it's not like UK has some incredible home field advantage. This game may be a bit ugly, but the Tenn defense will shut down the Wildcats and somehow, surprising as it may be, Mr. Crompton will figure out how to put enough points on the board to cover a FG (or the D may help with that as well). 3.5 units. Win.

Temple -2 @ Ohio. I admit, I am surprised at how Temple has played this year, I did not expect it, but they are on a heck of a roll and looking to lock up the MAC (East) title - a big deal for Temple. I know they are on the road and Ohio is a decent football team, but I think they will continue their winning ways here and finish the season strong. 3 units. Loss.

UNC -5.5 @ NC State. I know it is a rivalry game, but this is another case of 2 teams heading in different directions, UNC has been playing well and NC State is really falling apart - or maybe just bad. Either way, I expect UNC to just pound the ball against the Wolfpack and make enough plays with the passing game to keep them honest. NC State's D is porous and UNC should not have too much trouble moving the ball. On the other hand, UNC's D is solid. Clearly by now you see the Chicago Kid is not afraid to back a better team on the road. 2.5 units. Loss.

Clemson -3 @ S. Carolina. What was that about 2 teams heading in opposite directions?? Clemson is playing well right now and trying to finish the season strong, and the Gamecocks on the other hand are just hoping the season ends, soon as they are in their typical end of season collapse. I do realize it is difficult to go into an SEC school and get a win, but the game is early in the day which helps the visitor and Clemson is the better team. Clearly Clemson has explosive weapons as Spiller can take it to the house on any play, but their D is also impressive, especially up front. Although Garcia has improved this year (he had a lot of room to), he will be put into less than ideal situations in this game repeatedly and they will spell trouble for S.C. I could be missing something as I am surprised this line is so low, but I think they may be giving too much weight to the HF advantage in yet another rivalry game (all the rivalry games is just another reason this weekend is awesome). Clemson will make enough big plays and S.C. will struggle to move the ball in this one. 3 units. Loss.

Notre Dame +10 @ Stanford. Sticking with my road warrior theory, but taking a dog here with the Irish. This is kind of a 'gut' pick to be honest. I often stay away from betting on ND as they don't have a strong D and they are somewhat unpredictable, but for some reason I think this is a good spot for them. All sorts of talk of Charlie being fired (understandably) and how terrible ND is, but I think that motivates them this week. I don't think Charlie's firing is a done deal yet and so I'm sure he's fighting for his life and I think his kids like him and will fight right along with him. On the other side, how is Stanford supposed to be fired up? They were on a nice roll and had all sorts of momentum and then lost to Cal last week; and they are now supposed to be excited to play an ND team that gets no respect - that is tough to ask in my opinion. So, going beyond the motivational issues, Stanford certainly has a balanced attack that is putting up some nice numbers and I do expect ND defense to struggle to stop the run. But I also think ND will be able to move the ball through the air. I think ND will get enough stops, meaning Stanford FGs that will allow them to keep this close throughout, or maybe steal a win to try to save Charlie's job. 2 units. Win.

A few more games of interest . . . Navy -9.5 @ Hawaii; GaTech -7.5 vs GA; and Ok St. +8 @ OU.

Good luck and enjoy the T-giving weekend!

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