Thursday, November 5, 2009

Week 10 CFB picks ATS

Here we go, week 10 of the college football season and time to make up for that terrible performance last week which stopped a very nice 6 week run. Time to finish off the season on another nice run. So, here we go with the Chicago Kid's week 10 college football picks against the spread.

Oklahoma -6 @ Nebraska. First of all let me start with the fact that I don't understand this spread, but that won't stop me from backing the Sooners in Lincoln. OU is without question not the team nearly everyone expected them to be this year, due at least in part due to injuries to key players, but despite that disappointment, they are still a very solid football team. Their D is tremendous and their offense seems to be rounding into shape as Landry Jones matures and gains further confidence - and it doesn't hurt that Broyles is back for him to throw it to. Nebraska started strong this year, but seems to be out of sorts a little bit of late (to say the least). I know they are at home, at night, but a freshman QB in his 2nd start against this OU D is really asking a lot; too much in my opinion. OU just blitzed K-State last week early and then seemed to lose concentration a little bit and K-St hung around (but still lost by 12). I expect the Huskers to really struggle to move the ball in this one, and although OU may not run up and down the field against a solid Nebraska D-line, but will certainly be able to put some points on the board. So, despite being confused by the opening line of -6 and then the line movement to -5.5, I'm not backing away from my feeling that OU really doesn't struggle too much with Nebraska. Boomer Sooner, 5 units on OU! Loss.

Oregon -6 @ Stanford. Oregon is playing like a team possessed right now, just embarrassing people week after week, and Stanford is supposed to slow them down (when USC couldn't)? Oregon seemed to sleep walk through the Boise game to open the season, but since then has certainly received the wake up call loud and clear. Stanford is a solid team and we know they are well coached by Harbaugh, but I just don't think they have enough talent, namely speed, to keep up with the Ducks. Oregon is rolling and certainly focused on winning the PAC-10 and moving up the BCS standings so they certainly should have no problem getting motivated to beat the Cardinal; and similar to the OU game, I feel very comfortable laying less than a TD. Stanford will try to slow the tempo with their solid running attack, but that will not likely work for long as I expect them to get behind early (seems to be a trend in Oregon games lately) and have to allow their young QB to throw, which has not been their formula for success. 4 units on the Ducks. Loss.

Duke +10 @ UNC. Who doesn't love the Duke v UNC rivalry . . . but yes, I know that is in hoops, not football, but I still like these games. As you could probably tell if you follow the Chicago Kid, I like this year's Duke football team. Yeah, UNC beat VaTech, think back a little farther when Florida St. just moved up and down the field on them passing the ball at will. This Duke team can also pass the ball pretty successfully as well. UNC is tough to predict, and that usually means you should stay away from wagering on them, but here, in a rivalry game, I like the Blue Devils with the 10 points. UNC should have some success running the ball versus a less than fantastic Duke defense, but UNC's offense is not very consistent and I expect Duke to be able to put enough points on the board to at least hang around, if not win. 2.5 units. Loss.

Houston -2 @ Tulsa. Another game that confuses me. I kind of understood why Houston was only a small favorite on the road, but now the line has moved to Houston +1, huh? Isn't this the 7-1 Houston team that has had only 1 slip up against UTEP? What about this average Tulsa team makes everyone believe that they will beat Houston? I don't know, but I don't believe it. Houston's defense is not very good, remember last week, and Tulsa can be explosive, but I don't think they will be able to keep up with Keenum and Houston offense, even at home. We'll see, I'm certainly a little hesitant because of the opposite way action, but still think Houston wins this one, just disappointed I got in too early. 2 units. Loss.

Kansas -2.5 @ K-State. All right, my 5th road team out of the 5 picks, but I've had success as a road warrior before this year and I like my chances this week as well. KU is in a little bit of a funk lately no question, but certainly think they are the better team here. This is a big rivalry game and think that should be sufficient for the Jayhawks to break out of their slump and put a beating their in-state rival. As I mentioned above in the OU write up, I think K-state is getting too much credit for last week's game vs OU. Although I much prefer to ride the hot team (see Oregon), which is not the case here, but I also prefer to back the better team when they are laying less than a FG. I admit, there are reasons to be hesitant on KU here, but not enough for me; I think KU pulls it back together. 2 units. Loss.

There you have it, Chicago Kid's effort to get back on track this week in the pick-em challenge, not to mention the bank account. Good luck!

2 comments:

  1. I think I might dive in on that Duke game, I am waiting for the public to pound NC so I can get Duke at +11 though. I see you used my bank account reference though!!

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  2. Yeah, the account was used to movement in a single direction, up, last week was the first time in 6 weeks that I was negative - that is not nearly as fun! Yeah, getting Duke at 11 would be nice, but with this week, who knows, I see OU is down to -4 now, huh? I must be missing something . .

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