Week 3 CFB Picks

So many games to choose from this week, I actually like more than 5 so I will make my 5 picks with the usual detail, but will provide a few further thoughts on other games. Let's jump right, time to have a big week!

Alabama -7 @ Arkansas. It is fun betting on the best team in the country (in my book, by far). I think the Razorbacks are a solid team, Mallett is legit and they are athletic on both sides of the ball. However, Bama is more athletic and skilled. Arkansas couldn't really run the ball versus Georgia last week so can anyone think they will have any chance to run it all all this week? I don't! So, as good as Mallett may be (and at home) and I admit the Bama secondary is unproven, I can't see him having to throw repeatedly to move the chains working against a very athletic and well coached Bama team. Arkansas may get a few big plays, but I can't see them being able to put the ball in the end zone enough to keep up. Bama is extremely balanced on O and just wears teams down. Laying a TD on the road in the SEC is never ideal, especially because the Hogs believe they are a contender this year, but it is exactly that reason that I think Saban will have his guys extremely fired up for essentially their first real game of the year - road or not, they will be ready. And, like having the veteran QB on the road. So, would be a 5 unit play, but only 4 here because laying a TD on the road in the SEC is never ideal. Loss - Bama was lucky to steal the win.

Tennessee -14 @ home vs UAB. Yeah, I'm willing to lay 14 points with this year's Vols squad, and here's why. They have just been beaten up by 2 of the better teams in the country and they are going to look to take out some frustration on a very much lesser opponent at home. I like teams who are superior, at home, playing a lower level of competition. Possible let down alert, but this early in the year, the Tenn players will be fired up to get back to .500 and get a win at home. Also, let's not forget the major factor here, UAB is awful. 2 units on the Vols. Loss - Vols are bad!

TCU -17.5 @ SMU. TCU is really good, SMU, not as much. Yeah, SMU will be fired up for a nationally televised rivalry game at home, but it won't matter. TCU is a veteran group on offense and knows that with the BCS system, they have to just drill other teams. That is what they will do here. I can't see SMU scoring more than 17, and so all I need is 35 from the Frogs, doesn't seem like too much trouble for Mr. Dalton and company. 2.5 units. Nice way to lose, missed PAT with 7 min left....fun stuff!!

Va Tech -4 @ Boston College. This one is tough because no ones knows which Va Tech team will show up, but I'm betting the real one does here. There is a little rivalry here and I think Va Tech will want to so BC, and everyone else they are legit. I also think they out class BC in terms of talent so laying 4 even on the road doesn't scare me too much. Expect Va Tech to handle BC from start to finish, but tough to be too confident on the Hokies at all right now. 3 units. Win.

UNC -2.5 @ Rutgers. UNC is depleted for sure, but they also have to be really looking for that first win. This is another example of a game (like Tenn) in which the Heels are 'used to' playing better opponents and think the will have success against a less talented Rutgers team. Rutgers is 2-0, but have not looked impressive. I think UNC avoids going 0-3 and covers the 2.5. 3.5 units. Win.

Once again heavy on the road teams, but always prefer to have the better team, especially when a lot of points aren't involved. In addition to the 5 picks, if you are interested, I also like S. Carolina going into Auburn (but can't roll with 2 SEC road teams the same week (at least in the picks); the under (43) in the WVA @ LSU game, as well as the Idaho Vandals rolling over Colorado St (by more than 7.5).

Good luck this week!