CFB Picks

The season is rounding into form and we now have a decent idea about who has what, and who doesn't. Chicago Kid has been treading water with his college football picks so far, positive, but honestly nothing to get excited about. Time for that to change. I made a nice 3 week run last year around this time of year and think it would be appropriate to do it again. Let's get too it.

Alabama -6.5 @ S. Carolina. I know, I know, I'm a big Tide believer this year, but it is hard not to be as it sometimes looks like they should be playing on Sunday instead of Saturday (with the exception of the 1st half at ARK which cost me $). I know they are coming off too tough weeks, but I don't think that matters. This is a veteran group and they have only one goal. I also think the Gamecocks may be slightly overrated. Sure, they will be fired up for a home game against #1, who wouldn't, and sure the Old Ball Coach may try to pull a rabbit out of a hat here, but S. Carolina just doesn't have enough. Lattimore, is good, really good, but you can't run on Alabama, you just can't. So, they will have to rely on Garcia to carry the day - good luck. He is improved, and certainly has talented options to through to, but they can't keep up with Bama with that as the focus. Further, and for the record, anytime I can get Bama at less than a TD, I'm taking it. Bama for 3.5 units. Loss, still surprised by this, not sure how you allow Stephen Garcia to kill you, but live and learn.

Michigan St. +4 @ Michigan. Go Green! They look like they may be legit this year. Definitely a solid team all the way around. Further, this game is HUGE to them, their confidence is through the roof after beating Wisconsin last week and they also have a chip on their shoulder against the maze and blue so they will be ready for this one. On the other hand, trust me, I am not a huge fan of going against Robinson, he is special, but Michigan's defense is lacking (anyone see last week) and I'm not sold on Robinson as a passer (he rarely has to rely on that so I can't blame him), but I think State will be able to limit his big plays. Basically I think this is a war and like getting the points with a team that will be extremely focused for this one. 2 units. Win, obviously should have had more faith in Sparty.

Oregon -36 @ Washington State. Wow, yep, laying 36 points here. That seems almost silly until you think about it; how many points is Oregon to score this week, 50? 60? 70? All I know is, it will be a lot. The Ducks offense is high powered and can score quickly from anywhere. Also, Oregon just jumped Boise in the polls this week so you know 'style points' will be a focus as they will not want to let that slip by not drubbing the Cougars as everyone expects. It is kind of silly it comes down to this, but I do think it is an important consideration. The Cougars are just not good at football, not much else to say. This one won't be close, just a question of covering more than 5 TDs. I see Oregon scoring at least 50, so it is a matter of whether the Cougars can put it in the end zone more than twice. I don't think they can, but even I can't go too crazy laying 36 on the road. 2 units. Loss. Didn't watch it, but have to believe Oregon wasn't extremely focused and that will cost you when you decide to lay 36.

Arkansas -5 v Texas A&M. Razorbacks are legit, they probably should have beaten Alabama (even though I don't think they are that good as they also almost lost to Georgia, ouch). With Mallett as an experienced leader, I expect them to stay focused and try to make a run at a BCS game, which I don't think is out of the question. They can't really run the ball, but they can throw, well, to a lot of dangerous targets. A&M is solid as well, but I just don't think they are as good across the board. I really like SEC teams playing outside of conference, they are just so used to playing at a high level every week; and they typically have superior athletes. I don't think A&M can match the fire power of the Hogs. 3 units. Win. Had to earn it, but still ended on the right side of it.

Florida -6.5 v LSU. I've been waiting for my chance to bet against LSU and I think I've found it. I'm certainly not sold on this Gator team, they have a few issues of their own, or everyone just holds them to too high of a standard, but LSU's offense is just tough to watch. Athleticism usually carries the day for them, but that won't be the case here. I think Florida will have a bad taste in it's mouth after getting whipped plain and simple last week and will certainly want to defend their home field. Tough to go into the Swamp and play well, especially at night. Florida still has a chance to win the SEC East and I think they will be focused and ready to go. That alone will not be enough because the LSU defense is very strong and Florida will not be able to easily move the ball, but I expect LSU to completely struggle on offense giving the Gator plenty of chances, and they may even capitalize on one of the several turnovers everyone expects out of Jefferson. I'll admit, these games are usually wars, and usually low scoring so laying 6.5 may be a bit much, but I just don't think LSU's offense can put much of anything on the scoreboard against a few strong Florida defense. 2.5 units. Loss. What the hell Urban? Similar to Bama, actually slightly glad that you blew it at the end and lost if you weren't going to cover anyway.

Those are my top 5 games, but also want to point out that I am a big fan of the UNDER in the Fl/LSU game. Just don't see both teams getting to 20 points unless there are some fluke plays, ie TOs, that produce TDs. I also like a few others that didn't make the list, like Army to beat Tulane, ND covering 6 and Penn St./ILL UNDER at 42 as well - 2 bad offenses and decent defenses; will be ugly. There you have it, good luck!!