CFB Picks

Alright, I'm sick of just hovering around average this year so it is time to change that this week. Like Joker said, this is just unacceptable, but I do feel like we have some real value this week as the season is starting to unfold and we have an idea of what teams are really about. Let's get to it!

Utah -20.5 @ Wyoming. Utah is explosive and has really put some points on the board this year; but no one really seems to notice. Have to agree with Joker, Wyoming is used to getting drubbed and Utah enjoys dishing out such punishment. Laying 3 TDs on the road is always something to think twice about, but I have faith in the Utes here. They should be focused, even without a lot of hype they have crept up to number 11 and likely have their sights on a BCS bowl - I admit it will be hard with Boise and TCU, but hey, I'm sure their coaching staff is in their ear about taking care of business and getting the BCS 'style points'. Anyway, I don't think the outcome of this game is really in doubt, it just comes down to how bad Utah beats them; and I think the Utes will cover the number without any real issue. Tough for Wyoming to stay intense when they continue to get drilled. 4 units. Win. The lone one of the week. Nice to not really have to sweat out the Utes.

Ohio St. -4 @ Wisconsin. Alright, I know, it is hard to win at Camp Randall stadium, especially at night. Heard that before, and it wasn't true a few years ago in Prior's 3rd overall game, in which in went into Madison and got the W. Expect the same this week. The Buckeyes are solid all the way around (as they almost always are under Coach Sweater Vest) and should be fired up in their first week as number 1. Further, they have to be a little annoyed by the report that Boise may be the BCS #1. I think they'll feel like they have something to prove. I understand the Badgers are a solid veteran team who just wins games, especially at home. However, the Badgers are solid, but they are pretty basic, fundamentally sound; but just can't compete with the Buckeyes in terms of athletes. How many times do teams just ram the ball down OSU's throat? Not often? I am not necessarily calling for a blowout here, but think it may be on the brink a few times and we only have to lay 4 points. I expect a statement game by the Buckeyes. 3.5 units. Loss. Talk about shitting the bed! Damn the Buckeyes looked bad.

Florida -7.5 v Miss. St. This seems to be a popular pick, but I that is for true for 1 of 2 reasons. The first, which I believe, is that people, ie Vegas, think Florida is really not that good; or second, this is just a sucker bet and Vegas is going to get paid because I have to believe the majority of the action is on the Gators. Normally that would cause me to stay away from Florida here because of the uncertainty around how they will respond to 2 straight losses. Well, that will make me lower my number a little, but I know Urban Meyer is as competitive as they come and he is probably just fuming after the last 2 weeks. I think he is able to keep them focuses, not to mention they are at home again, and they are clearly more talented than the Bulldogs. I think the Gators blow off some steam in this one and just drill Miss. St. 2 units. Loss. What the hell happened to Florida? Tebow leaves and the whole damn thing falls apart??? 3 Ls in a row, 2 in the swamp, ugly!

Texas A&M -3 v Missouri. So, if you read this very often you probably realize I am a Mizzou fan so this one is tough, but I think MIZ may be a little over-rated right now - although at 5-0 it may be difficult to be over-rated. That being said, I'm not sure Gabbert is 100% healthy. Nice to be able to back the home team when the spread is relatively low. I'm not sure the Tigers can run the ball this year and it is hard to win on the road relying totally on the pass. Also, I think A&M has played a tougher schedule to date and will be more prepared for this game - which is MU's first road game of the year, so tough to know how they'll react. 2 units. Loss. Apparently I was wrong on MIZ. They just rolled into town and drilled them. We'll see how they do this week, I will be on OU.

NC State -7 @ ECU. I realize this too is a popular pick, but that doesn't change the fact that ECU can't stop anyone, and I mean anyone. They give up 42 points a game, and it isn't like they have been playing high powered offenses. The Wolfpack have put up numbers on everyone this year, including Va Tech (a game they probably should have won). It will almost certainly be a shootout, but I feel much better with R. Wilson in this one. They may put up 60 on ECU. Again laying 7 on the road is tough, but 7 in this game is like 7 in a WAC game, may as well be 1 because they only count by 7s. Wolfpack in a route. 3.5 units. Loss. No real explanation here.

There you are, 5 winning picks. In addition, for those who have an interest in a few other thoughts, like the UNDER in the Pitt / Cuse game, even at 43.5. You may not want to watch it as I expect it will be boring, but that helps if you can suffer betting the UNDER. I also like Cal +2.5; and actually to win at USC. The Trojans are not very good, Kiffin is also not very good and they really don't have much to play for, should spell trouble. Good luck this week, time for a breakout!