College Football is Back.....Week 1 Picks

Despite my excitement around the start of CFB season each year, it usually sneaks up on me; and this year is no different. If you follow my picks in prior years, you realize I am often relatively late to post picks - sometimes due to research and others due to laziness - but I'm really down to the wire here in Week 1. But better late than never right (and I didn't like any of the games on Thursday anyway!).

So, unlike the interesting and often comic posts that Joker has leading up to the season, I'll just get right to my picks. Please note, as I like to ease into the season, none of my picks will be more than 3 units.

2011 Week 1 CFB Picks.......

LSU +3.5 vs Oregon. Everyone knows LSU is playing without 3 starters on offense, including 2 of the their play makers, but I don't think this game is about LSU's offense. It is about their D. LSU's defense is extremely athletic, even by their standards, and it starts with their D-line, which has 8 solid players on it. That means the ability to rotate and keep guys fresh, which is extremely important against the Ducks high-tempo offense. Clearly I am a little nervous about the Ducks speed and ability to make big plays, but I think they will really struggle to consistently move the ball and thus put up points on the LSU. And I also realize that it is unlikely that LSU is able to move the ball with ease, but their downhill running attack will be the difference that I think allows them put enough points on the board to win (and I'm even getting 3.5). So, I like LSU in a war. 2 units. Win.

Alabama -38 vs Kent State. Ok, this is new for me, I really don't usually like laying huge points (and I consider 38 huge) because the plays often become meaningless when a team is up by 30+ points, but I see this game a little differently (and no, it is not because I read too much of Joker's blog about how great the Tide are). It is very easy to find info discussing how good Bama should be this year, and we know Saban is not against putting some points on the board. Further, Bama is so deep, even if they go tot he 2nd string QB in Sims, he is going to be trying to impress and the coaches are going to want to see what he can do, so I don't see them absolutely sitting on it, regardless of the score. And, I admit I don't know a ton about Kent St. but I'm pretty certain they are going to struggle to score much, if at all, on the Bama D. Bama will be looking to put on a good opening show for the home fans in week 1 and I think they'll cover this huge number. 1 unit (it is 38 points). Win (despite 5 TOs).

Miami (OH) +20 @ Missouri. I really don't like to make this play because I am a Tigers fan and think Pinkel has built a solid program and that they will have another good year. However, I do think the transition at QB will take a little time and that may make it difficult to cover this big number in week 1. Miami returns 17 starters, all of which remember getting blasted my MU last year. I think that experience, along with inexperience of the Tigers QB will allow the RedHawks to hang around. 1.5 units. Win.

S. Florida +10.5 @ ND. Another game I'm not thrilled with the side I'm on as I typically cheer for the Irish. However, it is not a secret that when ND struggles, it has often been because of the other team's speed, and the Bulls have a lot of it. They also have a veteran QB which helps when going into a place like ND in week 1. Similar to the Missouri game, I think (and hope) ND wins the game, but I think asking them to cover 10.5 is a high hurdle. 1 unit. Win.

Boise St. -3 vs. Georgia. Haven't we seen this before?? BSU beats big name name school on neutral (sort of) field? The Bulldogs have some talent, no doubt, and should be extremely fired up for this game; but I think they have too many question marks to get it done here. The Broncos are an extremely veteran group led by a pure winner at QB. There has been a lot of talk about losing the receivers to the NFL, and that will certainly hurt, but hell, they return almost everyone else! This group is poised and ready to make a run at the BCS game and they know this is a necessary step 1 so I think they will be just as fired up and focused as the Dawgs. Although some say BSU is still the underdog type, I don't think that is true any longer as they are getting top level recruits year after year and are restocking the positions just like the big boys now. And let's not forget, Chris Peterson can coach! Despite the fact that Georgia is from the SEC, the Broncos are the heavyweight in this fight and I think they show it. 3 units. Win.

There you have it; the Chicago Kid's 2011 week 1 picks. I think this is going to be a good year, and want to try to start out on the right note, something I have failed to do the last 2 years. Enjoy the first weekend college football!!

CK