College football picks week 4 continued.....

Alright, time to finish up the picks for week 4. Just to recap, my first two picks are Temple and Florida, see the write up in prior post. Win on both Temple and Florida (the easy way, have to love games like these).

Illinois -13 vs. Western Michigan. Yep, I even surprised myself a little hear, at the beginning of the season I would not have predicted that I would be comfortable laying almost 2 TDs with the Illini, but they look solid. They can really run the ball and they have a playmaker at QB. I believe they are getting some solid momentum and that has proven to be extremely important for Zook's teams while he has been in Champaign. To be honest, W. Michigan is a good enough team that if ILL doesn't come prepared they could hang around, but I think the Illini will be fired up after making the Top 25 and have some pride to stay there. I expect the Broncos to struggle to put too many points on the board and I think Illinois will just continue to pound the football and wear them down. 2 units. Loss.

Notre Dame -7 @ Pitt. Alright, I'm going to believe the Irish have gotten the dumb mistakes (or at least most of them) out of their system. They are clearly a very talented group and I think Kelly will continue to drill into them the importance of focusing. Pitt is solid, but will be over-matched talent-wise in this game and I don't think the home field will make up for it. ND has a veteran squad and will be able to play well on the road so I think they break out of their shell and play a solid game this week and handle the Panthers. 2 units. Loss.

Arizona St. -2.5 vs. USC. A few years ago I may have bet the house on the Trojans in this situation, but things are very different now. The Sun Devils are a much better team at home, and although they may still have some mental lapses (see Missouri game), they are a talented group. USC has a few stars, but overall is not that good of a football team. I realize they were probably not as geeked up for their trip to Minnie, but they barely won so I can't have a lot of confidence in them being successful in Tempe against a much better team. I do not expect the Devils to run and hide, but I am pleased to get the number below a FG. 1.5 units. Win.

I must admit, it was very hard not to pick LSU as I think they are a good value at -6 with that D because they don't need to score a bunch of points to cover (and their O isn't that bad), but I am just a little nervous that they can continue to cover every week. Therefore, this week I'm looking beyond the field (as I see it) and even though I won't be surprised in the least to see another typical LSU 24-13 type win, I just can't pull the trigger. Also, I like East Carolina (and think Joker is due), but just struggle to lay 14 with them, even acknowledging how bad UAB is - I just prefer to back better football teams. So, there you have it. Good luck all!!

CK