Alright, here we go again, time to see if CK can maintain the momentum after a good start. I will say, this week took more time and research than usual because of the lack of info available and the generally large point spreads on a lot of the teams I am most comfortable and familiar with. That being said, let's get right to it.
Temple -15 @ Akron. I know, I know, laying 15 on the road with Temple?? I was skeptical at first too, but Al Golden had a solid program built at temple and although he moved on to "greener" pastures in Miami (of course no pun intended), he left some good football players at Temple. I realize the Zips are at home and will come out fired up, but Temple will be focused to get off on the right foot in conference play as they think they can win the MAC. Akron is also a little banged up after getting drilled by OSU last week and is missing 3 starters. I expect Temple to get ahead early and then just wear them down with a solid running game. 2.5 units. Win.
UCONN +2.5 @ Vandy. There are some similarities hear to the Temple game. Uconn lost it's coach after last season, but he had built a nice program at Uconn and they return some solid backs, an experienced o-line and 9 starters on D. I don't expect to be wowed by the Huskies offensive attack as I admit their QB situation is a little suspect, especially in a road game; however, I think it is pretty clear from their personal what their game plan will be, run the ball, repeat and play solid D. Vandy is a mess. I realize they are in a tough spot trying to recruit in SEC country and really can't compete (not to mention the academic standards), but nonetheless, they really don't have good football players. Yes, they return a lot from last year's 2 win team, but is that good? They are all trying to learn a new coach and new system. Again, have to believe Vandy is favored because of the night home game (and Uconn's QB situation), but I don't think that will be enough against a veteran Uconn team. Also like the ML here, but I'll take my 2.5 points as I expect this will be an ugly game and ultimately Vandy will make more mistakes. 2 units. Loss....by a hook, but oh well.
Stanford -20.5 @ Duke. If they were playing this 'game' in a classroom it might be close, but they will play on the football field and it won't. Stanford is good! Yeah, Harbaugh left, but really, so what? Shaw has the same mentality and they run the same system so not much really changed, primarily, #12 is still the QB. But let's now forget, they have a stable of capable RB's each fighting for more and more carries. Duke on the other hand lost to Richmond last week, at home. Therefore, I don't really see much of a home field edge here and Stanford is a veteran group who will not be phased - hell, the way the Cardinal travels, they may have a nice following in Durham. Anyway, I don't see any way the Devils keep it close. 4 units. Win.
Bama -10 @ Penn St. DEFENSE! Bama's is really good. And yes, another road team, and even a third road favorite, but I'm ok with that. I expect Bama to come out a little more focused in this contest as I have to believe it is hard (even in week 1) to get excited about Kent St. (no offense). Saban has been all over them this week I'm sure about mental toughness and taking care of their jobs and the football. I admit, their offense didn't look great last week, but they have enough talent to make plays and score points. And I don't think they'll need too many of them because despite Kent's short comings, their D is brutal. I always like backing a D like this because they can just dominate a game. All of that said, the uncertainty at QB will keep this to 2 units. Win.
Wisconsin -20 vs Oregon St. Finally, a home team, but still a heavy favorite. The Badgers are good and they are versatile. Wilson really adds a nice piece to their puzzle. Their D may not be quite as strong as last year, but it is still solid and the Badgers can score. Oregon St. on the other hand has to travel across the country after losing at home to Sacramento State and they are still without their most explosive weapon in Rogers. I see this getting ugly early, and then Wisconsin will just lean on them with their 2 star RBs and pour it on. Admit, laying 20 is a lot, but I struggle to see how this is a contest as it is tough for any team to go into Madison and not get rattled, much less one with significantly less talent. 3.5 units. Win.
So there you have it, let's see if I can get some separation from the pick'em group with another solid week. I won't go into the same detail, but a few other games I'd take a look at if you are interested are NC State -2 @ Wake, Purdue -1 @ Rice and Florida -23 @ home vs UAB. I'm also very tempted by the Missouri Tigers tonight. They were unimpressive in week 1, but still, getting 10 is tempting, I almost added them to my list to have another Dog, but I'm good with my generally large road favs this week. Good luck all!
Friday, September 9, 2011
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