Alabama -3 @ Florida. I believe this game is solidly at -3.5 most places, but I was fortunate (I think) to get it at -3, but I don't think it will matter. Bama's offense has been less than impressive this year overall, but they have so many play-makers that they are able to put more than enough points on the board to win (and usually cover). The best thing about their O, is their D!! It is spectacular; and allows them not to take chances on offense and gives them a lot of short fields. The Gators scat backs are fast and elusive and must be paid attention too because they are game changers, but they are really Florida's only threat. As creative as Weis is, the lack of options will allow Bama's incredible defense to focus appropriately on these backs and the many ways they are involved in the offense. Betting against Florida in the Swamp is not a good long-term proposition, but I think the home field and maybe the UT win (even though they were missing a key receiver early in the game) brought this line a little too low. I don't expect Bama to dominate, but unless their veteran D blows a few key assignments, I don't think the Gators have the firepower to keep up - even if the pace set by the Bama O isn't light speed. 3 units. Win, in impressive style.
Illinois -7 vs Northwestern. Maybe I'm giving the Illini too much credit (trust me, not a homer even though from Chicago) as they hurt me last week and I didn't learn my lesson, but I think that was a typical let down game (Illinois under Zook is famous for them). I do not expect the same thing against the Smarties from Evanston. The Smarties are a solid team and very well coached, but I just don't think they have the athletes to compete with Illinois for 60 minutes. I expect it may be close early, but Illinois will wear them down and should be able to win handily at home in the end. I'll lay a TD (I think it is up to -8.5 now). 2 units. Loss - should have learned my lesson backing Ron Zook teams 2 weeks in a row; well I have now!
GA Tech -10 @ NC State. Ok, last week although they weren't in my picks, I was on Cincy vs NC State and wrote on Walter's chat board that my reasoning was "NC State is not good". That received some ridicule as lacking for substance, but in fact, I'm going with it again. Why, because I don't have time to break down all of the Wolfpack's weaknesses! I don't care if they are at home, they will not be able to hang with the Rambling Wreck. Tech's offense is explosive and I do not expect them to have any trouble lighting up the scoreboard; however, I fail to understand how NC State can keep up (even if GT's D isn't great). I'm guessing the spread is 'only' 10 because NC State is at home, but that won't help them stop the pounding they will get from the GT rushing attack. 4 units. Push - what the hell was that Ga Tech; up 24 with 2 minutes??
S. Carolina -10 vs. Auburn. I think it is pretty widely known now that the 2011 Tigers are pretty much of a fraud. Their defense can't stop anyone on the ground and although Mr. Dyer is legit, their offense couldn't find (or buy) a difference maker like Newton this year so they are inconsistent on O and I don't think that will get better for them as they move through the SEC schedule. Lattimore is truly a stud, and will have no problem running through the Auburn D unless they put 11 guys in the box (and maybe even then). Although Spurrier loves to through the ball around, he hasn't been as successful as he is by accident and he knows Lattimore is the ticket this year and isn't afraid to use him. That also reduces the number of times Garcia has to make decisions / throws. Despite being at USC for nearly a decade, he is still not a good QB. Although the Gamecocks have been struggling a little, I think they will wake up this week for an SEC game at home and their talent on both sides of the ball will prevail. Further, Auburn has won 6 straight, so I'm guessing many of the S.C. players will be out to avenge. 2 units. Loss, but at least they lost the game as well, was hoping ILL would too. Garcia is really terrible.
Clemson +7 @ Va Tech. I am generally afraid of backing Clemson as they often find a way to do something (or many) things to shoot themselves in the foot. However, I think this is another opportunity to get a quality team with a lot of points on their side in what should be a war of a college football game. I wasn't too surprised to see them beat Auburn, but then handling FSU, even with their back-up QB, was impressive. The Tigers will be riding a wave of confidence (which is extremely important in college football) and although it is their first road game this year I expect them to play well. Va Tech is a favorite of mine personally because they play D and S.T. and do the little things, but they are young and untested on offense. They haven't faced anyone near the caliber of Clemson this year and I think it will be an adjustment for them and therefore an advantage for Clemson. Would not be surprised to see the Hokies sneak out a W at home, but the 7 points kicker is just too much for me to pass up. 2.5 units. Win.
There you have it, the 5 picks of the week. I may follow up with a few more thoughts as we get closer to the games on Saturday. Good luck!
CK
No comments:
Post a Comment