Time to regain the momentum!! Despite Joker's suggestion, Ms. Aniston did not destroy my American Dream (although I prefer this picture of CK more than the prior one Joker posted). Unfortunately I've never met Ms. Aniston so I have not given her the chance to ruin me (I left that to the 'Ol Ball coach last week). Despite a solid first 6 weeks, I'm actually not that far ahead of my chasers - 110-85-6 is not a bad record as a group (not exact because of some duplicate wins / losses, but close). Enough, unlike last week, this week there are definitely more games that look appealing, so let's get to it!
Oklahoma St. -6.5 @ Missouri. I'll repeat, I'm an MU fan, but they continue to get way too much respect from Vegas. The Cowboys are legit and a veteran team so I'm not as worried about them on the road. Although the Tigers are a solid group, I just don't think Franklin is ready to lead the offense in a way that allows them to keep up with Okie (despite beating up on Iowa St. last week). The Tigers may hang around for a bit and will put up a good fight at home, but I just don't think they have enough in the end. Very pleased to get this under a TD (as I don't think Okie kicks FGs). 3 units. Win.
Arkansas -15.5 @ Ole Miss. As Joker points out, this one kind of jumps out at you because the Rebels are bad. Arkansas can score, and again, being on the road won't really bother them, especially as I don't think this one will be close for long so the fans won't be too into it. Bama just beat the piss out of Ole Miss in their house last week so how do you expect them to get up for this game?? I don't. Wilson will do as he pleases and the Hogs run wild here. 3 units. Loss.
Temple -13.5 @ Bowling Green. Just like Missouri being over-valued by Vegas, I continue to feel Temple is undervalued; and until that changes, I'm going to continue to back them. I do not think it changes this week. Yeah, laying nearly 2 TDs on the road is never ideal, but they are much superior team and have played well on the road so far - probably because they are a veteran group. The Owls should cruise to win their division of the MAC, but still, they will have enough motivation playing within their division. Also, especially on the road, I like backing good defensive teams so this works out well here. Bowling Green is struggling, and I expect that to continue. 2.5 units. Loss.
Wisconsin -7 @ Michigan St. The Badgers are legit, and should be pissed off after seeing the BCS rankings. I expect them to take it out on Sparty. I will admit, I've doubted Sparty all year, so maybe I'm wrong, or more likely, I'm finally going to get it right. I know they will be fired up with ESPN Gameday there, but still believe it is a tough spot for them after an emotional win over Michigan. Wisconsin's D is the most suspect part of their team, but I'm not sure MSU is built to exploit it. In the ND game, I think we saw that a balanced offense can have lots of success against Sparty, and the Badgers offense is much better than the Irish. 3.5 units. Loss.
Clemson -10.5 vs. UNC. Alright, so I have a home team!! I will be honest, this game is more feel and less supported by some of the numbers than some of the others, but I think Clemson survived a semi-scare last week and will refocused at home this week. Further, I don't have a lot of faith in UNC to be able to keep up and put points on the board. So, not a ton of analysis here, just rolling with Clemson talented offense. 2 units. Win.
There you have it, the picks to get CK back on track - otherwise I know I will be hearing about it from Joker. No matter, will not be an issue. As is becoming the norm, here are a few additional games I like but didn't quite make the list.....Bama -29.5; K-St. -11; Maryland +18. Good luck!
CK
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Question ck. Do line changes matter in college as they do in the NFL. Public are pounding all of your picks, and Oklahoma st, Arkansa, Kansas st the lines are going down. I saw this with s Carolina game and that ended shady. Any help will be appreciated.
ReplyDeleteHi, I apologize, but I'm not exactly sure what you are asking. Where I look (certainly not a major house, but usually in line) K-state is the only line that I mention that is now different (down from -11 to -10). Temple went up to +14; all the others are the same. And actually Ok St is now -7. Not sure how you know the "public" is pounding them, I did not. I may be naive, but generally, CFB or NFL, I believe the vast majority of the time, line changes reflect amount of action. Certainly sometimes it sharps trying to move a line a small amount, but I think that may be overstated - casinos model of juice is efficient, they have little incentive to vary. I must admit, was not a fan of the S. Carolina game, but I can't attribute much to that. I've seen a number of shady things over the years, but percentage-wise I think it is relatively small. Thanks for the comment and sorry I couldn't provide a more direct answer / opinion.
ReplyDeleteCK
I go to scores and odds for line movement. Yesterday the lines for those 3 games were down, they went back up. To see who the public is taking I go to http://www.sports.com/sportsbook/liveodds.php I noticed that in yesterday's game with Syracuse and the game with fiu the public was pounding fiu and wvu, but the lines stayed the same. I think I'm thinking to much into this.
ReplyDeleteScoresandodds.com
ReplyDelete