2012 CFB is here!!

Here we go again......another season of CFB, and another opportunity to beat Joker.  Can't wait to compete again in 2012.  After a great start to last season, I must admit I fell off a little bit, which was very frustrating.  But all you can do is live, learn and improve, so that is what I plan to do this year.

Week 1 is always tough in my mind; certainly opportunities are presented, but obviously a lot more guess work as no one has played yet this year.  As a result, I always try to focus a little more on the "off the field" issues in week 1.

Since I realize that people read this site (the few who do anyway) are just looking for CFB picks, let's get to it.....but do have to take this opportunity to say well done to Joker on your female selection for week 1!!

Michigan State -6.5 vs Boise State.  Let's start with the basics here, Sparty is at home (big, especially week 1), bigger, faster and has better players.  All in all, that should make this one pretty straightforward; however, let us not forget who they are playing - the blue smurfs.  Despite Chris Peterson's amazing run and their history of winning these games, this year is very different.  BSU has way too many new and inexperienced players to go on the road and compete with a better Spartan squad.  Without the magic of the blue field, I think this ends Boise's run of wonderful opening performances.  MSU is focused, and although they too are breaking in a new QB (not ideal), he has some experience and he is at home (plus he doesn't have to win the game, just not lose it).  So, I'm confident in my first pick of 2012!  4 units.  Loss.  Tough break to dominate game and then kneel it 3 times on the 4 yard line, but that's how it goes.

South Carolina @ Vandy UNDER 45.  It is never exciting to go with the under, but in the end, winning is reward enough.  S.C's D is exceptional and defenses often dominate early as the offenses (try to) get their groove.  I expect S.C. to pound the ball on the ground with Lattimore and keep it conservative, and further, if he isn't healthy, they may struggle to move the ball consistently.  Vandy is improved (they had a lot of upside potential from where they have historically), but they are still not a good offensive team, even at home, particularly against this defense.  45 is certainly not a low number, but I can't see Vandy lighting up the scoreboard, and therefore I see it coming down to whether S.C. can, and in week 1, one the road against a decent opponent, I don't think so.  3 units.  Win (nice to win the first one of the year comfortably - hopefully many more to go).

Western Michigan +10 @ Illinois.   As easy as it can become (and I realize this is a fault of mine) to always side with the chalk, that is not always a good idea.  Illinois has a lot of potential (where have we heard that before??), but they have a lot of uncertainty with the new coaching staff as well.  They also have a lot of holes to fill from last year.  The Broncos are a pretty experienced team (except for receiver) and have a great QB - which I think will be a key in this game.  The Illini have consistently underperformed, and I'm not sold that era ended when Zook left.  I don't think Western will necessarily win, but I do think they will hang around, and also think having a good QB brings in play the back door cover.  Another consideration is that the O/U is 50, so 10 is a pretty big spread in what should be a low scoring game.  2 units.  Loss.

Clemson -3.5 vs Auburn.  This game definitely has some unknowns with both teams missing key players and new coordinators, but I think Clemson has a little/lot more stability than Auburn.  And I like games with reasonable point spreads so you are not 'invested' in scrub time.  This game means a lot to both teams, but I just think Clemson gets it done again as Auburn is really inexperienced, particularly at QB - with a first time starter.  Clemson should be able to score points, but I'm not so sure the same can be said for Auburn.  Clemson runs away late (or at least wins by 4).  2 units. Win.

Tennessee -3 vs NC State.   Again, going with a game in which I prefer the low point spread as opposed to betting on a better team laying a ton of points.  Both teams have good/great QB's, but this one, as with many games, will be decided in the trenches.  It is not secret that SEC teams have athletes all over the field, but particularly on the D-line.  The Vols will be too athletic overall for the Wolfpack.  I know there are a few trends that go against me in this one (like Tenn's record vs ACC) but those are skewed in my opinion (limited sample, past years, etc.) and I just don't think NC State has enough overall talent to keep up.  2 units. Win.

A few notes, I did not take any large spread games, which is generally my practice (although I'll sprinkle in a few throughout the year), but if you like those, I do like Joker's Bama and OSU picks.

Also, I've been asked to put the number of units, but please understand, those are really pretty subjective.  I review many games each week and narrow it to 5, so clearly I like them all.

Good luck, and enjoy the first long CFB weekend!!

CK