Week 1 Picks

Week 1 is always a tough week to pick as you do not have a lot of info to base your picks on, but there are certain things I look for in early season games, (i) home teams, (ii) veteran QBs, (iii) veteran O-lines and (iv) proven coaches. Many early season games (and spreads) are decided not by great plays, but lack of bad plays and so I look to minimize that risk. As you will see below, my research changed many of my picks from my initial thinking in the last post. As you will also see, I don't rank any game above 3 units as it is tough for me to be that confident in week 1 games (but again, remember this is just for entertainment purposes).

Now to the Chicago Kid's first ATS college football picks :

Wake Forest covering 2 points against Baylor. I understand Baylor is young and has an exciting QB, but WF, although not a powerhouse by any stretch, has all of the characteristics I mentioned above. 2 is not a lot of points and I don't see WF losing at home. I give this 3 of 5 units.

Illinois covering 6.5 versus Missouri. Trust me, I am not a homer and generally an MU fan, but this is a rivalry game and Missouri has beaten ILL the last 2 years so ILL will be hungry for revenge. I think the ILL seniors will have a lot of motivation (and success) to beat up on a rebuilding MU team. And MU may have a quality season, I think they are too inexperienced to be very successful in week 1. 2.5 units.

LSU covering 17 @ Washington. While LSU is a long way from home in this one, I think they will just be too athletic for Washington to keep it close. LSU was disappointing last year and I don't expect Les Miles to be satisfied with that type of performance again and so I expect LSU to be very ready to play well. Always tough to lay 17 points on the road, but LSU will almost certainly be able to run the ball consistently and I expect Washington to struggle to score and so I am comfortable laying a lot of points. 2 units.

New Mexico +14.5 @ Texas A&M. This violates a lot of my general rules, but getting 2 TDs, even on the road, against a very average A&M squad gives me some comfort. I often get myself in trouble when I let the line dictate my pick, but this is a case in which it is justified, just do not think A&M will have improved enough to lay that many points. 2 units.

Finally, although I am very tempted to take the 6.5 with VaTech vs Alabama (see last post) in what I expect to be a war, I think the better play is the Under at 38 points. I see this game going 1 of 2 ways, either it is a war of a game and someone wins 14-10 or 17-14 (likely with at least 1 score set up by D) or Bama just rolls them as VaTech's offense could be totally inept. Therefore, even if the Tide rolls, I can't see them lighting up the scoreboard on VaTech's D either. 3 units on Under.

Stay tuned, although I don't necessarily expect it in week 1, but I often wake up on Sat mornings with a few new ideas and may have some new picks.

Did anyone else notice ESPN wasted no time in getting Erin Andrews involved in the college football season? Instead of having her on the marque game with 2 ranked teams, they had her doing the thrilling 7-3 S. Carolina @ NC State game. No complaints here, just thought it was interesting that ESPN couldn't even wait 3 hours to get her on the air.

Hope everyone enjoys the first Saturday of college football!