Week 4 college football picks

Let's jump right into the Chicago Kid's Week 4 CFB picks ATS:

Miami -2.5/3 @ VaTech (I got in early at -2.5 but it is now at -3). I'm very surprised to see this line below/at a FG. I really expected to see Miami -5 or 6 as good as they have looked so far this year. For those of you who remember the U teams of the early 2000s, doesn't this team have a lot of similarities . . . tremendous athletes all over the field, quality talent at the skill positions and the extreme confidence (maybe cockiness) that goes with it? I think most people expected Miami to return to the top of the college football ranks, but I'm not sure anyone expected it quite this quickly. Miami is loaded. Don't get me wrong, going into Blacksburg and leaving with a W is no easy task, even if you dominate the game (ask the Huskers), but I expect that is exactly what Miami will do, dominate. VaTech is good, no doubt, but I think this is a bad spot for them after the ending of last week's game. They stole a W at home, but I think that will make it difficult for them to come out with an edge this week after such a surprising comeback win. Miami is young and could have a few growing pains in the tough environment, but I think they are just too talented and motivated as they are still unbeaten and have their sights set on the ACC and BCS titles. Wrong, big time.

Missouri -7 @ Nevada. Yeah, I saw Walter pick Nevada here as the home dog on national TV. As you know, I certainly respect and appreciate Walter's picks, but have to strongly disagree here. Certainly Nevada almost has to be better than they have looked so far this year, but not good enough to keep up with the Tigers. Everyone, including me (see my week 1 picks) expected MU to have a rebuilding year this year, but I don't mind admitting when I'm wrong (well, I mind, but I'll do it). MU's QB Gabbert is for real and I expect the offense will continue to improve as they open up the play book for the young kid. I will admit I am a little nervous about a "look-ahead" issue for the Tigers as they have big game vs Nebraska next week, but with MU's scare in week 2, I think they learned a lesson about not coming to play every game and don't expect it to happen a second time in 3 weeks. Also, history is with the Tigers as they have just demolished Nevada in recent years - and I don't expect anything different here. MU in a route. Not the route that I expected, but solid W.

Cal -5.5 @ Oregon. Someone once said, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" - so I'm following that advice this week with Cal. Jahvid Best is special. I hope Coach Tedford realizes that and continues to feed him the ball. I'm sure Coach has a 'good' reason for sharing the carries, but if you are backing Cal, you want to see Best touch the ball as often as possible as he can go for 6 on any play. I expect Cal to be extremely focused and motivated as they have to be pleased with the USC loss last week and their position in the both the Pac 10 and BCS. It is tough not to support Oregon after Chip Kelly sent a check to a fan who asked for a refund after the trip to Boise, but despite the win over Utah, I don't think Oregon is that strong and don't expect a sudden turn around this week against a very talented and athletic Bears squad. WAY WRONG!

S. Carolina +4.5 vs Ole Miss. How can I not agree with Walter's pick of the month? S. Carolina will not want to start their SEC season at 0-2 and will be fired up playing at home on a Thursday night. Spurrier definitely has the athletes to compete in the SEC, but they are still young and he has to put them in the right situations to succeed, or at least limit their mistakes (namely Garcia). S. Carolina has already played some quality teams this year and so I expect them to be better prepared for this game than Ole Miss who has rolled over a few cupcakes. I expect a typical SEC war tonight and so even though Ole Miss may leave with a W, I'll gladly take the 4.5 points (I like it that the line keeps climbing, glad I waited). Didn't even need the points, S.C. played well, but Ole Miss looked terrible.

5th pick is a tough one with several candidates, including Iowa +10 @ PSU; AZ St +12.5 @ Georgia and Buffalo +3 @ Temple. Despite my potential SEC bias, I have to take ASU +12.5 at Georgia. I appreciate the fact the Joker is also rolling with ASU (at +11.5, it pays to wait in this case). While Georgia is a solid team, this is too many points to lay with a non-existent pass defense. ASU may not be ready to beat Georgia between the Hedges, but I expect them to be able to move the ball and score consistently enough to hang around. ASU should have won the game, UGA is struggling this year.