Let's keep the momentum going after 5 straight weeks in the black! As is often the case, less and less 'easy' games jump out at you as the season progresses, but there are still solid opportunities week in and week out if you look hard enough (and always hope for a little luck on your side - which by the way, I'm owed a little this week). I believe that is true this week as well (and didn't even have to look to hard for a few of them). Here goes, week 6 picks.....
Oklahoma -9 vs Texas. As Joker pointed out, this one just jumps off the page. Boomer Sooner!! I realize this is a huge rivalry game and a big spread for these teams, but I don't care. OU is a lot better than the Horns in 2011. As if the Sooners needed any additional motivation for this game, but they have to be a little pissed off that Bama and LSU are jumping them despite their victories. Also, they essentially had a bye week last week to prepare. Texas is a legitimate team, no question, but they have QB issues which will be evident in this high level contest as they will not be able to consistently run the ball on OU. OU's offense is too balanced and it has too much experience. Emotion may keep Texas around for a while, but OU will continue to pick them apart and the Horns will not have the firepower to keep up. 3.5 units. Win.
Kansas St. +3 vs Missouri. As you probably know, I am a Mizzou fan, but believe the Wildcats is the right side of this one (wish I would have waited, it is now +3.5). The Wildcats have been somewhat of a surprise this year (at least to me) but they are playing well. They are at home with momentum (both huge in CFB) and will be seeking some payback as the Tigers have taken 5 straight. Pinkel is building a nice program at MU (hopefully one that moves to the SEC) and Franklin will be really good I think, but I don't think he's ready to go into Manhattan and leave with a W against a solid conference foe. I see this game as 2 evenly matched teams and have to jump on the chance to take the home team with the +3 as the kicker. 3 units. Win.
Iowa +3.5 @ Penn. State. Iowa is not great this year (by any stretch) but as usual, they are solid and play fundamentally sound football. Penn St. has a good D so scoring will not be an easy task for the Hawkeyes, but the Lions have next to a disaster at QB and I expect they too will have a lot of trouble moving the ball. So, we are likely looking at a closely contested, low scoring game. I'm glad to take the visitor and the 3.5 points (should have moved early on this one instead of K-ST as it opened at 4). 2.5 units. FYI - also like the Under at 46. Loss - didn't appreciate how bad Iowa's offense is...but got the under for a financial push.
Michigan -7 @ Northwestern. Last week the Smarties got me as Illini couldn't run the ball, but I think it will be a different story this week. As I mentioned earlier, I am a big fan of momentum (as it breeds confidence) and Michigan has it. They may have surprised some people this year (and the Irish game was a fluke) but Shoelace is legit and their D is holding up pretty nicely. I think NWestern may struggle to bounce back after that game against ILL (always their Super Bowl) despite coming home. They also lost a solid RB and although Persa's set to play, who knows for how long if he gets hit. I like Michigan to control this game and get a few big plays late to make it route, but enjoy the added bonus that if Persa isn't healthy early, the Smarties will likely struggle all afternoon (both physically and mentally). 2.5 units. Win.
LSU -13 vs Florida. I won't lie, I was a little hesitant to lay almost 2 TDs with LSU against Florida's D, but I really think Florida's offense will be inept against an extremely impressive LSU D. Actually wish Brantley was playing as I don't think it changes the result that much, but think it would have kept the line in single digits. Oh well, what can you do. I'm banking on the fact that LSU will turn Florida over several times and turn them into points either directly or through several short fields. Not to harp on it, but LSU is rolling right now and after an easy game last week I think they will be focused and ready for this one. Miles will have them flying all over the field and Driskel will be clueless. Further, LSU should be able open up the playbook a little more and get Jefferson some reps, especially if they get an early lead. I do not expect LSU to run up and down the field, but I think 17 is enough for me to cover and believe we likely have a bigger cushion than that. 2 units. Win.
There you have it, the week 6 picks which should keep the Chicago Kid's momentum going as well. Enjoy the weekend and good luck!
CK
Michigan -7 @ Northwestern. Last week the Smarties got me as Illini couldn't run the ball, but I think it will be a different story this week. As I mentioned earlier, I am a big fan of momentum (as it breeds confidence) and Michigan has it. They may have surprised some people this year (and the Irish game was a fluke) but Shoelace is legit and their D is holding up pretty nicely. I think NWestern may struggle to bounce back after that game against ILL (always their Super Bowl) despite coming home. They also lost a solid RB and although Persa's set to play, who knows for how long if he gets hit. I like Michigan to control this game and get a few big plays late to make it route, but enjoy the added bonus that if Persa isn't healthy early, the Smarties will likely struggle all afternoon (both physically and mentally). 2.5 units. Win.
LSU -13 vs Florida. I won't lie, I was a little hesitant to lay almost 2 TDs with LSU against Florida's D, but I really think Florida's offense will be inept against an extremely impressive LSU D. Actually wish Brantley was playing as I don't think it changes the result that much, but think it would have kept the line in single digits. Oh well, what can you do. I'm banking on the fact that LSU will turn Florida over several times and turn them into points either directly or through several short fields. Not to harp on it, but LSU is rolling right now and after an easy game last week I think they will be focused and ready for this one. Miles will have them flying all over the field and Driskel will be clueless. Further, LSU should be able open up the playbook a little more and get Jefferson some reps, especially if they get an early lead. I do not expect LSU to run up and down the field, but I think 17 is enough for me to cover and believe we likely have a bigger cushion than that. 2 units. Win.
There you have it, the week 6 picks which should keep the Chicago Kid's momentum going as well. Enjoy the weekend and good luck!
CK
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