Week 7 College Football Picks ATS

Here we are in week 7, the season is just flying by; but it has been good to the Chicago Kid so far and I plan to keep it going. I will say, this week has been a real challenge for me as not as many games have jumped off the page - honestly only the second week like this so far this year (and I did well the first time too). Well, enough whining about having to really research games and search for a feel, here we go......

Ohio State +4 @ Illinois. Yeah, the Buckeyes are not their usual self this year after losing so many stars and dealing with all of the turmoil, but they still have a decent amount of talent on both sides of the ball. Also, and you may say I'm just still bitter about the Illini shitting the bed for me against Northwestern, but I just don't believe they are that good. If you remember last week I talked about how I prefer to ride momentum, but this is a case in which I think that momentum has moved the line a bit out of whack. I'm a little nervous about the Buckeye QB situation, but generally I think OSU will be fired up to get their first conference win and this is where Illinois actually shoots themselves in the foot (as they have been prone to do under Zook). I think this game should have been closer to pick (and it is actually moving that way, not sure if you can still get +4) and so getting more than a FG is a good value for me. 2.5 units. Win.

South Carolina -3 @ Miss. St. The Gamecocks finally rid themselves of the disaster that is Steven Garcia; and I think that will help them focus - not to mention he won't throw it to the other team any longer. The Bulldogs got a lot of hype early in the year, but I don't think they are ready for primetime in the SEC just yet. I think S. Carolina will have a sense of closure with the new QB and no more drama; not to mention they still have Lattimore which always helps. They should also be very focused as they are leading their division of the SEC by a game and don't want to slip up against Miss St. All in all, I think this is a good spot for the Gamecocks and I'm pleased to only be laying a FG, even on the road. 4 units. Loss - to me, this is the worst, get the game right and then lose on a BS last play that doesn't impact the game.....oh well, it happens.

Oklahoma St. -7 @ Texas. I know, the Cowboys struggle against the Horns blah, blah, blah. Stats and trends are nice, but players play the game and Okie St. has the better (much) players in this one. Texas' secondary got blitzed by OU and I expect Weeden to be just as successful. The Cowboys have proved they can score consistently this year on just about anyone and I don't think the Horns have the firepower to keep up. Further, this is a tough spot for Texas after getting blitzed in the Red River Rivalry. Okie State is focused on winning the Big 12 and possibly sneaking into the BCS game so they will be ready and I just don't think it will be that easy for Texas' young group to get fired up again. I was glad to see this drop to -7, but I would have taken it at -7.5 as well as I think the Cowboys pour it on. 3 units. Win.

Florida -2 @ Auburn. Hmmm, do I have a trend this week with red and orange teams, maybe, but in all seriousness I just can't see the Gators losing 3 straight. Coach Muschamp is going to be all over them this week and have them focused on the fact that they still control their own destiny in their division of the SEC. I do not expect it to be as difficult to get up after 2 losses when those losses were probably against the best 2 teams in the country. Florida has some issues at QB no doubt, but they have enough playmakers to put points on the board against a relatively suspect Auburn D. Further, Auburn lives on running the ball with Dyer, who is very good, but I don't think they will be able to simply pound it on the ground against the Gators and I'm not convinced they can win by throwing it. So, there are several reasons why, but in total I just can't see the Gators dropping 3 straight and only have to lay 2, it is just a bad break if they win by 1. 2 units. Loss.

Michigan +2.5 @ Michigan St. Yep, got away from the red/orange theme, but do have my fifth road team which makes a me a little nervous, but still confident. I thought long and hard about this one, and in the end, just don't understand why/how MSU is favored (clearly because their at home, but that isn't enough for me). The Spartans have really only played 1 good team this year and that was ND and they got drilled. I'm back to my momentum theory here with Michigan, they are rolling and believing in themselves and I think that confidence will help them greatly. Also, this is a rivalry game, so typically they will be close and it is always nice to get points (even if only 2.5) in those games. Also, as Walter always points out, home field is generally worth 3 points, that means on neutral field MSU beats Michigan? I don't buy it. I also always like to back the best player, and here that is clearly Shoelace. His explosiveness should get them a enough big plays to win. Finally, my experience has always been that Sparty is better as a dog and so I'm not sure if this is the best spot for them. 2.5 units. Loss.

So, as you can probably tell with the write up, although this year I've backed a lot of big favorites and laid the points, I didn't feel as comfortable with those scenarios / match-ups this week so I focused on the games in which I think it will be decided on the field and not by the margin of victory. I also believe that since big favorites have covered a lot of games this year, Vegas may be creeping the lines up (or I'm just over-thinking it but either way). There you have it, I think we'll keep the CK's momentum rolling this week, but do expect to have to earn these games (unlike the OU / Texas gift from last week). Good luck to all!

CK