Saturday, November 3, 2012

Week 10 CFB picks ATS

Wow, how did we get to week 10 already?  After 9 weeks I have been unable to find any sort of consistency or good feel.  Luckily, there is still time.  I'm the cellar dweller in the pick'em league, which I'm not accustomed to, and let me tell you, it is no fun!  Luckily, everyone is still in striking distance if I can just make a little push.  Let's get it started.  In an effort to tweak it, I'm going back to individual game unit rankings. 

Florida -17 vs Missouri.  I know Walt thinks Florida's season is over, but I'm not sure I agree with that; and more importantly the Tigers are just not yet ready for the speed and physical nature of SEC games - especially on the road in the Swamp.  The Gators offense has been doing it with mirrors this year, but they will find their stride this week against Missouri.  The Tigers offense is just inept, and Florida's D is legit so I don't think Florida will need to score much above 17 to cover this one.  3 units.

Mississippi St +7 vs Texas A&M.  I know Bama blitzed the Bulldogs last week and that may be hard to recover from, but I think they can do it coming back home.  This should be the season in context and cause them to refocus.  Also, let's be honest, isn't 7 points a lot to give an SEC team at home with only 1 loss on the year?  Aggies are playing strongly, but I just think this is too tempting.  2.5 units.

Oregon -7 @ USC.  I know the line has moved to -8 but I would still take it there, I just was able to lock it in early.  This one jumped off the board at me.  I'm not sure USC is that good, despite Barkley and his receivers, for one because their D is poor.  Against Oregon that will be an issue as the Ducks can score almost whenever they want against good defenses, if you don't have one, get ready.  Oregon also has the mental edge in this one knowing that some impressive wins are likely to move them up to play for the BCS if they can win out.  USC on the other hand doesn't really have too much left to focus on (other than the co-eds).  Ducks in a rout.  5 units!

Oregon St. -3.5 vs Arizona St.  I've been skeptical on the Beavers all year, but I'm starting to believe.  This is a big game for them and they are at home so I think they will be ready to play.  ASU is a solid team, but far from good and I think they are getting a little too much respect here on the road.  2 units.

Indiana -2.5 vs Iowa.  I'm a little surprised to be writing this and backing the Hoosiers in the football game, but they are improving; especially on offense.  Their D is still suspect, but at home I have confidence they will put points on the board against a very average Iowa team.  Iowa is good enough to hang around, but again, I'm sticking with the home team being prepared to cover a small number.  2.5 units. 

Apologize for the late posting, but still plenty of time before the games start.  Good luck to all.

CK

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